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The Edge Desk

The Edge Desk

A weekly newsletter for prediction market traders and curious observers. One conviction pick, the thinking behind it, and market education. Part analysis, part education, part accountability.

Articles

Denver vs Buffalo: A Probability Paradox

Jan 16, 2026

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3 min read

Denver vs Buffalo: A Probability Paradox

The Kalshi playoff markets have a logical inconsistency that doesn't add up.

Miami Low Temperature Dispute

Jan 11, 2026

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2 min read

Miami Low Temperature Dispute

A Low-temperature Kalshi market has a potential opportunity.

November CPI: The Cleveland Fed Says the Market Is Wrong

Dec 14, 2025

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6 min read

November CPI: The Cleveland Fed Says the Market Is Wrong

The Kalshi CPI markets for November 2025 look mispriced. Here's the play.

LA Weather Tomorrow: The Market's Got It Wrong?

Dec 11, 2025

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5 min read

LA Weather Tomorrow: The Market's Got It Wrong?

The Kalshi temperature market for LA on December 12th looks mispriced. Here's the play.

What Will Powell Say?

Dec 6, 2025

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4 min read

What Will Powell Say?

A Data-Driven Look at Kalshi's Word Markets

The Edge Desk

A weekly newsletter for prediction market traders and curious observers. One conviction pick, the thinking behind it, and a running tally of wins and losses. Part analysis, part education, part accountability.

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