A weekly newsletter for prediction market traders and curious observers. One conviction pick, the thinking behind it, and market education. Part analysis, part education, part accountability.
Jan 16, 2026
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3 min read
The Kalshi playoff markets have a logical inconsistency that doesn't add up.
Jan 11, 2026
2 min read
A Low-temperature Kalshi market has a potential opportunity.
Dec 14, 2025
6 min read
The Kalshi CPI markets for November 2025 look mispriced. Here's the play.
Dec 11, 2025
5 min read
The Kalshi temperature market for LA on December 12th looks mispriced. Here's the play.
Dec 6, 2025
4 min read
A Data-Driven Look at Kalshi's Word Markets